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Pick a set and the card you're chasing, and see your real odds across booster packs, bundles, Elite Trainer Boxes and booster boxes — built on community-verified pull rates.
What are you chasing?
…or a specific chase card
Chasing any Special Illustration Rare in Pitch Black — lands roughly 1 in 100–120 packs.
Single Booster Pack0.83–1.0%
1 pack
Booster Bundle4.9–5.9%
6 packs
Elite Trainer Box (retail)7.3–8.6%
9 packs
Pokemon Center ETB8.8–10%
11 packs
Booster Box26–30%
36 packs
Custom pack count14–17%
packs
SIR and Mega Hyper Rare odds are Japanese print-run estimates. Early English openings (170+ packs) are consistent with them, and the remaining tiers are from English data. Rates will firm up as more English packs are opened.
The same numbers the calculator runs on — the chance of hitting at least one card of each rarity, by product. Card values are ungraded USD market prices and move with the market.
Pitch Black pull rates
SIR and Mega Hyper Rare odds are Japanese print-run estimates. Early English openings (170+ packs) are consistent with them, and the remaining tiers are from English data. Rates will firm up as more English packs are opened.
Rarity
In set
Per pack
Bundle (6)
ETB (9)
PC ETB (11)
Box (36)
Pokemon ex (Double Rare)
—
1 in 4
82%
92%
96%
>99%
Ultra Rare
—
1 in 11–29
19–44%
27–58%
32–65%
72–97%
Illustration Rare
11
1 in 9–11
44–51%
58–65%
65–73%
97–99%
Special Illustration Rare
6
1 in 100–120
4.9–5.9%
7.3–8.6%
8.8–10%
26–30%
Mega Hyper Rare
1
1 in 1260–1370
0.44–0.48%
0.66–0.71%
0.8–0.87%
2.6–2.8%
Top chase cards: Mega Darkrai ex #116 (~$400-450 ungraded), Mega Darkrai ex #120 (~$300-350 ungraded), Morpeko ex #117 (~$125-150 ungraded), Mega Zeraora ex #114 (~$100-130 ungraded), Mega Chandelure ex #115 (~$80-100 ungraded), Gwynn #119 (~$60-80 ungraded), Gladion’s Final Battle #118 (~$45-60 ungraded).
Top chase cards: Mega Greninja ex #116 (~$250-300 ungraded), Cinccino ex #119 (~$60-90 ungraded), Mega Dragalge ex #118 (~$50-75 ungraded), Mega Floette ex #117 (~$50-70 ungraded), AZ’s Tranquility #120 (~$30-60 ungraded), Roxie’s Performance #121 (~$30-50 ungraded), Mega Greninja ex #122 (~$500-600 ungraded).
Top chase cards: Mega Zygarde ex #120 (Kaleidoscope artwork), Meowth ex #121 (Team Rocket comic border), Rosa’s Encouragement #123 (Top Supporter SIR), Mega Starmie ex #118 (Water-effect holo), Mega Clefable ex #119 (Pastel SIR), Mega Zygarde ex #124 (Set headliner MHR).
Top chase cards: Mega Gengar ex #284 (~$1,400 ungraded), Pikachu ex #276 (~$950 ungraded), Mega Dragonite ex #290 (~$700 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex #281 (~$415 ungraded), Pikachu ex #277 (~$385 ungraded), Mega Charizard Y ex #294 (~$530 ungraded), Mega Dragonite ex #295 (~$300 ungraded).
Top chase cards: Mega Lucario ex #188 (~$225-250 ungraded), Mega Lucario ex #179 (~$200-225 ungraded), Mega Gardevoir ex #187 (~$190-215 ungraded), Mega Gardevoir ex #178 (~$175-200 ungraded), Mega Venusaur ex #177 (~$145-165 ungraded), Mega Latias ex #181 (~$75-95 ungraded), Mega Absol ex #180 (~$60-80 ungraded).
Top chase cards: Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex #231 (~$530 ungraded), Cynthia’s Garchomp ex #232 (~$200 ungraded), Ethan’s Ho-Oh ex #230 (~$165 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Nidoking ex #233 (~$94 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Moltres ex #229 (~$90 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Crobat ex #234 (~$63 ungraded).
With 32 Special Illustration Rares in the pool, a specific SIR (like Umbreon ex) runs roughly 1 in 1,450-1,700 packs. God Pack odds are community estimates.
Rarity
In set
Per pack
Bundle (6)
ETB (9)
PC ETB (11)
Box (36)
Pokemon ex (Double Rare)
—
1 in 6
67%
81%
87%
>99%
Ultra Rare
—
1 in 13–26
21–38%
30–51%
35–59%
76–94%
ACE SPEC Rare
6
1 in 21–29
19–25%
27–36%
32–42%
72–83%
Master Ball reverse (any)
—
1 in 19–20
26–28%
37–39%
43–45%
84–86%
Special Illustration Rare
32
1 in 45–53
11–13%
16–18%
19–22%
50–55%
Hyper Rare
5
1 in 152–180
3.3–3.9%
4.9–5.8%
5.9–7.0%
18–21%
God Pack
—
1 in 1500–4000
0.15–0.4%
0.22–0.6%
0.27–0.73%
0.9–2.4%
Top chase cards: Umbreon ex #161 (~$1,400-1,500 ungraded), Sylveon ex #156 (~$450-500 ungraded), Espeon ex #155 (~$290-320 ungraded), Leafeon ex #144 (~$290-320 ungraded), Glaceon ex #150 (~$270-300 ungraded), Vaporeon ex #149 (~$245-275 ungraded), Flareon ex #146 (~$195-225 ungraded).
Surging Sparks pull rates
Rarity
In set
Per pack
Bundle (6)
ETB (9)
PC ETB (11)
Box (36)
Illustration Rare
23
1 in 13
38%
51%
59%
94%
Ultra Rare
21
1 in 15
34%
46%
53%
92%
Special Illustration Rare
11
1 in 80–90
6.5–7.3%
9.6–11%
12–13%
33–36%
Hyper Rare
6
1 in 189
3.1%
4.7%
5.7%
17%
Top chase cards: Pikachu ex #238 (Stellar Tera Pikachu), Latias ex #239 (~$165 ungraded), Milotic ex #237 (~$97 ungraded), Pikachu ex #247 (~$70 ungraded).
Pokémon 151 pull rates
Rarity
In set
Per pack
Bundle (6)
ETB (9)
PC ETB (11)
Box (36)
Pokemon ex (Double Rare)
—
1 in 8
55%
70%
77%
99%
Ultra Rare
—
1 in 16
32%
44%
51%
90%
Illustration Rare
16
1 in 12
41%
54%
62%
96%
Special Illustration Rare
7
1 in 32
17%
25%
29%
68%
Hyper Rare
3
1 in 51
11%
16%
20%
51%
Top chase cards: Charizard ex #199 (~$400-450 ungraded), Blastoise ex #200 (~$140-160 ungraded), Venusaur ex #198 (~$110-130 ungraded), Zapdos ex #202 (~$95-115 ungraded), Alakazam ex #201 (~$65-85 ungraded), Mew ex #205 (~$25-40 ungraded), Erika’s Invitation #203 (~$20-30 ungraded).
Pull rates for 30th Celebration haven't been published yet — every card in the set is foil, and each booster pack includes 1 of 30 Pikachu rare cards. We'll add it to the calculator as soon as reliable rates land.
Each rarity has a per-pack rate — for example, "1 in 67 packs". The chance of hitting at least one across a product is 1 − (1 − 1/67)packs: eleven Pokemon Center ETB packs at 1-in-67 gives about a 15% chance. Opening more packs never guarantees a hit; it only shifts the odds.
Odds for a specific card assume every card in its rarity tier is equally likely — a set with 6 SIRs at 1-in-67 puts any one of them around 1 in 402 packs. Real print runs can weight individual cards slightly, so treat specific-card odds as good estimates rather than exact figures.
Rates come from community-tracked pack openings collated in our per-set pull-rates guides, cross-checked against set data from pokemontcg.io. Where the community data supports a range rather than a single figure, we show the range. The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official pull rates, and no retailer — including us — can guarantee what's inside sealed product.
Card values are ungraded USD market prices at the time of writing; products on Evol Vault are priced in GBP.
Data last reviewed: 18 July 2026
Use this calculator on your own site
Running a Pokemon TCG site, a set guide or a YouTube description page? Drop the calculator straight into it. Two lines of HTML, no account, no API key, no cost — and it stays up to date on its own as new sets are added.
It sizes itself to your column, matches light or dark pages automatically, loads nothing else,
and adds no tracking. Options: data-theme="light" or "dark" to force a
palette, data-set="pitch-black" to open on one set, and
data-sets="pitch-black,chaos-rising" to limit the picker — all on the
<div>. Free to use on any site; the only condition is that the credit link stays.
How the calculator works, where the numbers come from, and what they can and can't tell you.
The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official pull rates, so every figure here comes from large community-tracked samples of real pack openings, collated in our per-set guides and cross-checked against set data. Where the sample supports a range rather than a single number, we show the range — treat everything as a well-evidenced estimate, not a promise.
No. A 36-pack booster box gives you roughly a one-in-three to one-in-two chance at an SIR depending on the set — good odds, but nothing in sealed Pokemon TCG product is guaranteed. Every pack is independent, so opening more packs improves your odds without ever locking in a hit.
Per pack, the odds are identical — Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes pull from the same print run. The difference is volume and extras: a Pokemon Center ETB contains 11 packs against the retail version's 9, plus an exclusive stamped promo card, so your odds of a big hit per box are higher simply because you're opening more packs.
We take the rarity tier's per-pack rate and spread it evenly across every card in that tier. If SIRs land 1 in 67 packs and the set has 6 SIRs, any one specific SIR works out around 1 in 402 packs. Real print runs can weight individual cards slightly, so specific-card odds are estimates.
Community samples don't always converge on one figure — different tracking projects land on slightly different rates. When that happens we show the honest range (for example 1 in 70–90 packs) instead of inventing false precision. Pre-release sets use estimates from the Japanese print run until English data lands.
No. Pull rates and card condition inside factory-sealed Pokemon TCG products are set by the manufacturer. We cannot guarantee specific cards, hits, or grading outcomes — this calculator exists so you can make an informed call before you buy.
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