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Pokemon TCG Pull Rate Calculator

Pick a set and the card you're chasing, and see your real odds across booster packs, bundles, Elite Trainer Boxes and booster boxes — built on community-verified pull rates.

What are you chasing?
…or a specific chase card

Chasing any Special Illustration Rare in Chaos Rising — lands roughly 1 in 80–85 packs.

Single Booster Pack 1.2–1.3%
1 pack
Booster Bundle 6.9–7.3%
6 packs
Elite Trainer Box (retail) 10–11%
9 packs
Pokemon Center ETB 12–13%
11 packs
Booster Box 35–36%
36 packs
Custom pack count 19–20%
packs
Shop Chaos Rising Full pull-rates guide

Pull rates by set

The same numbers the calculator runs on — the chance of hitting at least one card of each rarity, by product. Card values are ungraded USD market prices and move with the market.

Pitch Black pull rates

Japanese print-run estimates (Abyss Eye) — English rates confirmed after the 17 July 2026 release.

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Special Illustration Rare 5 1 in 100–120 4.9–5.9% 7.3–8.6% 8.8–10% 26–30%
Mega Hyper Rare 1 1 in 1260–1370 0.44–0.48% 0.66–0.71% 0.8–0.87% 2.6–2.8%

Top chase cards: Mega Darkrai ex (~$500-550 ungraded (JP)), Gwynn (~$95-110 ungraded (JP)), Morpeko ex (~$55-70 ungraded (JP)), Mega Zeraora ex (~$55-65 ungraded (JP)), Mega Chandelure ex (~$35-45 ungraded (JP)), Mega Darkrai ex (~$1,000-1,100 ungraded (JP)).

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Chaos Rising pull rates

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Pokemon ex (Double Rare) — 1 in 4–5 74–82% 87–92% 91–96% >99%
Ultra Rare — 1 in 15–18 29–34% 40–46% 47–53% 87–92%
Illustration Rare 11 1 in 9–10 47–51% 61–65% 69–73% 98–99%
Special Illustration Rare 6 1 in 80–85 6.9–7.3% 10–11% 12–13% 35–36%
Mega Hyper Rare 1 1 in 950–1000 0.6–0.63% 0.9–0.94% 1.1–1.2% 3.5–3.7%

Top chase cards: Mega Greninja ex #116 (~$250-300 ungraded), Cinccino ex #119 (~$60-90 ungraded), Mega Dragalge ex #118 (~$50-75 ungraded), Mega Floette ex #117 (~$50-70 ungraded), AZ’s Tranquility #120 (~$30-60 ungraded), Roxie’s Performance #121 (~$30-50 ungraded), Mega Greninja ex #122 (~$500-600 ungraded).

Shop Chaos Rising Full Chaos Rising pull-rates guide

Perfect Order pull rates

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Illustration Rare — 1 in 8–10 47–55% 61–70% 69–77% 98–99%
Ultra Rare — 1 in 10–12 41–47% 54–61% 62–69% 96–98%
Mega Attack Rare — 1 in 35–45 13–16% 18–23% 22–27% 55–65%
Special Illustration Rare 6 1 in 70–90 6.5–8.3% 9.6–12% 12–15% 33–40%
Mega Hyper Rare 1 1 in 1000–1800 0.33–0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.61–1.1% 2.0–3.5%

Top chase cards: Mega Zygarde ex #120 (Kaleidoscope artwork), Meowth ex #121 (Team Rocket comic border), Rosa’s Encouragement #123 (Top Supporter SIR), Mega Starmie ex #118 (Water-effect holo), Mega Clefable ex #119 (Pastel SIR), Mega Zygarde ex #124 (Set headliner MHR).

Shop Perfect Order Full Perfect Order pull-rates guide

Ascended Heroes pull rates

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Illustration Rare — 1 in 8–9 51–55% 65–70% 73–77% 99%
Ultra Rare — 1 in 10–12 41–47% 54–61% 62–69% 96–98%
Mega Attack Rare — 1 in 30–40 14–18% 20–26% 24–31% 60–70%
Special Illustration Rare 22 1 in 67–110 5.3–8.6% 7.9–13% 9.6–15% 28–42%
Mega Hyper Rare 2 1 in 540 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 6.5%
God Pack — 1 in 950–1000 0.6–0.63% 0.9–0.94% 1.1–1.2% 3.5–3.7%

Top chase cards: Mega Gengar ex #284 (~$1,400 ungraded), Pikachu ex #276 (~$950 ungraded), Mega Dragonite ex #290 (~$700 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex #281 (~$415 ungraded), Pikachu ex #277 (~$385 ungraded), Mega Charizard Y ex #294 (~$530 ungraded), Mega Dragonite ex #295 (~$300 ungraded).

Shop Ascended Heroes Full Ascended Heroes pull-rates guide

Phantasmal Flames pull rates

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Illustration Rare — 1 in 9 51% 65% 73% 99%
Ultra Rare — 1 in 12 41% 54% 62% 96%
Mega Attack Rare — 1 in 40 14% 20% 24% 60%
Special Illustration Rare 5 1 in 80 7.3% 11% 13% 36%
Mega Hyper Rare 1 1 in 1260 0.48% 0.71% 0.87% 2.8%

Top chase cards: Mega Charizard X ex #125 (Set headliner), Dawn #129 (Top Supporter SIR), Mega Charizard X ex #130 (Gold-bordered).

Shop Phantasmal Flames Full Phantasmal Flames pull-rates guide

Destined Rivals pull rates

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Any ex or above — 1 in 16 32% 44% 51% 90%
Special Illustration Rare 11 1 in 94 6.2% 9.2% 11% 32%

Top chase cards: Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex #231 (~$530 ungraded), Cynthia’s Garchomp ex #232 (~$200 ungraded), Ethan’s Ho-Oh ex #230 (~$165 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Nidoking ex #233 (~$94 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Moltres ex #229 (~$90 ungraded), Team Rocket’s Crobat ex #234 (~$63 ungraded).

Shop Destined Rivals Full Destined Rivals pull-rates guide

Surging Sparks pull rates

Rarity In set Per pack Bundle (6) ETB (9) PC ETB (11) Box (36)
Illustration Rare 23 1 in 13 38% 51% 59% 94%
Ultra Rare 21 1 in 15 34% 46% 53% 92%
Special Illustration Rare 11 1 in 80–90 6.5–7.3% 9.6–11% 12–13% 33–36%
Hyper Rare 9 1 in 189 3.1% 4.7% 5.7% 17%

Top chase cards: Pikachu ex #238 (Stellar Tera Pikachu), Latias ex #239 (~$165 ungraded), Milotic ex #237 (~$97 ungraded), Pikachu ex #247 (~$70 ungraded).

Full Surging Sparks pull-rates guide

30th Celebration

Pull rates for 30th Celebration haven't been published yet — every card in the set is foil, and each booster pack includes 1 of 30 Pikachu rare cards. We'll add it to the calculator as soon as reliable rates land.

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How these odds are calculated

Each rarity has a per-pack rate — for example, "1 in 67 packs". The chance of hitting at least one across a product is 1 − (1 − 1/67)packs: eleven Pokemon Center ETB packs at 1-in-67 gives about a 15% chance. Opening more packs never guarantees a hit; it only shifts the odds.

Odds for a specific card assume every card in its rarity tier is equally likely — a set with 6 SIRs at 1-in-67 puts any one of them around 1 in 402 packs. Real print runs can weight individual cards slightly, so treat specific-card odds as good estimates rather than exact figures.

Rates come from community-tracked pack openings collated in our per-set pull-rates guides, cross-checked against set data from pokemontcg.io. Where the community data supports a range rather than a single figure, we show the range. The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official pull rates, and no retailer — including us — can guarantee what's inside sealed product.

Card values are ungraded USD market prices at the time of writing; products on Evol Vault are priced in GBP.

Data last reviewed: 8 July 2026

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PULL RATE FAQ

Pull rates, answered

How the calculator works, where the numbers come from, and what they can and can't tell you.

The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official pull rates, so every figure here comes from large community-tracked samples of real pack openings, collated in our per-set guides and cross-checked against set data. Where the sample supports a range rather than a single number, we show the range — treat everything as a well-evidenced estimate, not a promise.

No. A 36-pack booster box gives you roughly a one-in-three to one-in-two chance at an SIR depending on the set — good odds, but nothing in sealed Pokemon TCG product is guaranteed. Every pack is independent, so opening more packs improves your odds without ever locking in a hit.

Per pack, the odds are identical — Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Boxes pull from the same print run. The difference is volume and extras: a Pokemon Center ETB contains 11 packs against the retail version's 9, plus an exclusive stamped promo card, so your odds of a big hit per box are higher simply because you're opening more packs.

We take the rarity tier's per-pack rate and spread it evenly across every card in that tier. If SIRs land 1 in 67 packs and the set has 6 SIRs, any one specific SIR works out around 1 in 402 packs. Real print runs can weight individual cards slightly, so specific-card odds are estimates.

Community samples don't always converge on one figure — different tracking projects land on slightly different rates. When that happens we show the honest range (for example 1 in 70–90 packs) instead of inventing false precision. Pre-release sets use estimates from the Japanese print run until English data lands.

No. Pull rates and card condition inside factory-sealed Pokemon TCG products are set by the manufacturer. We cannot guarantee specific cards, hits, or grading outcomes — this calculator exists so you can make an informed call before you buy.

Want the full breakdown for a set? Every set above links to its dedicated pull-rates guide.