Pokemon Chaos Rising Pull Rates: Odds & Top Chases

Chaos Rising is the smallest English Mega Evolution set so far, at 86 base cards plus 36 secret rares for a total of 122. Smaller sets concentrate the hit slot across fewer cards, which on paper means better pull rates per pack. The opening data from prerelease events (May 9-17) and the early imported boxes lines up with that theory.

Based on third-party tracking of 168+ packs opened pre-launch and the Japanese parent set (Ninja Spinner), here is what you should reasonably expect from Chaos Rising packs.

Chaos Rising pull rates per rarity tier

A standard Chaos Rising booster pack has 10 cards. The rare slot rotates through several rarity tiers with weighted odds.

• Pokemon ex (base, #1-65 range): roughly 1 in 4-5 packs. You will pull one of the five Mega Evolution ex cards or a standard ex in most short rips.
• Ultra Rare full-art ex (#87-99 range): roughly 1 in 15-18 packs. The 1-star foil ex with the dynamic full-art treatment.
• Illustration Rare (#87-101 range): roughly 1 in 18-20 packs. Eleven IRs total in the set, with Sligoo #95, Chespin #87, and Ampharos #090 as early standouts.
• Special Illustration Rare (#116-121): roughly 1 in 45-50 packs for the slot, or 1 in 50-72 packs for any specific named SIR.
• Mega Hyper Rare gold (#122): roughly 1 in 200+ packs. Only one card in the set carries this rarity: Mega Greninja ex.

A "hit" (defined as Double Rare or higher) lands roughly 1 in every 3.5 packs. From a 36-pack Booster Box, expect 9-11 hits in total, with roughly one SIR and a ~15% chance of the Mega Greninja MHR on a lucky box.

The six Special Illustration Rares

Chaos Rising ships with six SIRs, fewer than recent sets like Ascended Heroes (8 SIRs) or Perfect Order (7 SIRs). Fewer SIRs means each one individually pulls slightly more often, but it also concentrates value into a smaller pool.

The six SIRs:

1. Mega Greninja ex #116: rain-soaked Lumiose City artwork, the set's top chase
2. Mega Floette ex #117: Eternal Flower variant from the Legends: Z-A storyline
3. Mega Dragalge ex #118: kelp-forest illustration
4. Cinccino ex #119: non-Mega evolution SIR, performance-art composition
5. AZ's Tranquility #120: Supporter SIR, AZ reunited with his Floette
6. Roxie's Performance #121: Supporter SIR with stage-flair artwork

Plus the Mega Greninja ex Mega Hyper Rare #122 at the top of the ladder, with the gold treatment and the lowest pull rate in the set.

Top chases and what they are worth

Mega Greninja ex carries this set. Greninja is one of the most-collected Pokemon in the franchise, and the Mega Evolution treatment paired with the 1-in-200 pull rate creates the largest single-card value gap in any 2026 set so far.

Pre-launch trading data from the Japanese parent set and early English secondary listings:

• Mega Greninja ex MHR #122: trading around $500-600 ungraded on the Japanese side, with English copies expected to land 10-20% below that at launch and drift up as supply tightens.
• Mega Greninja ex SIR #116: around $250-300 ungraded.
• Cinccino ex SIR #119: strong art demand, $60-90 range.
• Mega Dragalge ex SIR #118: $50-75.
• Mega Floette ex SIR #117: $50-70.

The drop after the top two is steep. Greninja MHR and SIR together carry roughly 95% of the set's total secret-rare value, meaning the rest of the SIR slots are mostly cost-recovery hits rather than serious singles.

Which product gives the best pull rate per pound

This is where the buying decision actually lives. The full Chaos Rising lineup on Evol Vault breaks down into three sealed formats, each with a different pack-count and value trade-off.

The Chaos Rising Booster Box (36 packs) is the best £-per-pack ratio at every retailer. Expect 9-11 hits across 36 packs, with roughly one SIR per box and a ~15% chance of the Mega Greninja MHR. The Booster Box is the most rational format for anyone hunting the chase cards directly. See the Booster Box on Evol Vault.

The Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (9 packs + Fennekin full-art promo) trades fewer packs for the guaranteed Fennekin promo, 65 sleeves, dice, and the PC-exclusive box artwork. You sacrifice roughly 75% of the pack count compared to a Booster Box, so it is a worse ratio for chasing hits. The PC ETB historically holds value better long-term because of the exclusive packaging, so the trade-off is between hit-hunting and sealed appreciation. See the Pokemon Center ETB.

The Chaos Rising Bundle (PC ETB + Booster Box) combines both for buyers who want one shipment that covers both the hit-chasing angle and the long-term sealed display piece. See the bundle.

For pure pull-rate optimisation, the Booster Box wins. For mixed-use buyers (open packs but keep something sealed), the bundle is the most efficient single purchase.

How Chaos Rising compares to Perfect Order and Ascended Heroes

Pull rates do not exist in isolation. Three Mega Evolution sets have shipped in 2026 so far, and collectors comparing them want to know which produces the best hits-per-£ ratio.

• Ascended Heroes (January 2026): 8 SIRs, harder SIR pull rate (~1 in 60), but a deeper bench of valuable secondaries. The Ascended Heroes pull rate guide has the per-card breakdown.
• Perfect Order (March 2026): 7 SIRs, similar SIR rate (~1 in 50), softer top-chase ceiling. The Perfect Order pull rates guide covers that data.
• Chaos Rising (May 2026): 6 SIRs, slightly easier SIR rate (~1 in 45-50), one dominant chase carrying most of the set's value.

The small-set structure makes Chaos Rising the easiest of the three for hit-hunting, but the value is top-heavy. Anyone treating Mega Evolution as a multi-set hold rather than a single-set opening run should compare across the whole Mega Evolution range before committing to a single product. Pulling anything other than Greninja MHR or SIR is mostly trade or sell-for-cost territory. That trade-off is real and worth being honest about before opening boxes.

Are Chaos Rising packs worth opening?

If you are chasing Mega Greninja specifically and willing to accept ~1-in-200 odds, a Booster Box is the most efficient route. The expected value of a box at launch prices sits below the £-spent figure for the average opener. That is normal for new sealed product and improves as singles drift up post-launch.

If you collect masters or want the PC artwork, the Pokemon Center ETB is the sensible single product to grab and keep sealed. Sealed Pokemon Center exclusives have been the strongest-performing sealed category for the Mega Evolution era; the case for sealed appreciation walks through why.

For anyone weighing the wider question of whether to open or hold sealed product right now, the sealed Pokemon investment guide for 2026 covers the broader market context.

Chaos Rising goes live globally on 22 May 2026. Evol Vault sources directly from Pokemon Center UK, ships globally via Royal Mail and DHL, and stocks the Booster Box, Pokemon Center ETB, and bundle. For drop alerts on restocks and the Pitch Black launch in late 2026, join the notify list.